Politics
‘Divided We Stand, United We Fall’: How the INDIA Story Looks After the Bihar-Bengal Debacle
Lights, camera, run – this is how the INDIA bloc’s story has unfolded in the last four months. Since the first alliance meeting at Delhi in September last year, the opposition alliance is left with the DMK in Tamil Nadu, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction) in Maharashtra, CPM in Kerala, RJD in Bihar and SP in Uttar Pradesh.
As the leader of the Congress, the major partner of INDIA, Rahul Gandhi proceeds with his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra while his allies are on an “INDIA chhodo” spree, said a senior JD(U) leader, whose party switched sides and joined its former political adversary BJP on Sunday.
Out of the remaining allies, RJD leaders have agreed to stick to the INDIA bloc as they feel that distancing themselves from the coalition might affect their Muslim vote bank in Bihar. The DMK has an almost negligible role or presence in national politics as the party’s strength is limited to Tamil Nadu. The Samajwadi Party seems to be a depleting force in Uttar Pradesh but have announced their decision to give 11 seats out of a total of 80 in the state, to the Congress for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
In such a situation, what is the strength of the disintegrating alliance? Is the alliance fighting against Narendra Modi by banking on Muslim votes? Will Rahul Gandhi’s repeated assurance about the implementation of caste census across states help? How is the caste equation developing following the Bihar debacle?
These are some of the political-electoral questions experts are trying to decode while the scenario changes rapidly as India approaches the all-important general elections.
Did the NDA outsmart them all?
The opposition front now stands without the TMC and AAP, which refused to share seats in West Bengal and Punjab, and now the JD(U) in Bihar. Sandeep Shastri, a senior political analyst and national coordinator at Lokniti Network, said the current situation looks “challenging” for the opposition, especially for the Congress.
“The nucleus of the INDIA bloc looks shaky. The JD(U) clearly needed to save face for jumping ship, and that is why they blamed the Congress. Mamata Banerjee, too, trained guns at the Congress, which also did not think this through or see this coming. The leaders started their election campaign and embarked on a tour, but failed to win the trust of regional allies. A day before they entered Bengal, Mamata quit the alliance in her state; a day before the party was scheduled to reach Bihar, another ally pulled out of the INDIA bloc and joined the rival group. With such developments, it seems that the NDA has outsmarted them all and are setting the agenda, while the opposition is merely reacting,” Shastri said.
“It appears that all political parties are fighting for their individual space and their personal ambition. There is no unity over the agenda. Even political parties could not come together on the issue of the consecration ceremony. The relevant adage for them will be: divided we stand, united we fall,” he added.
Opposition’s dwindling vote bank
Out of a total of 543 seats, there are 131 reserved seats. The number includes 84 for SCs while 47 for STs. With the assembly election results in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the BJP appears to have made significant inroads in the Dalit and tribal vote bank.
The Muslim community’s pattern of voting for anti-BJP parties, the Congress or regional forces as a bloc, also seems to have changed. An analysis into the results of the 2019 elections and the last significant poll in Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka show how Muslims have voted for the BJP.
Additionally, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s overt outreach to some Muslim groups and sub-groups, some Christian groups changed the electoral chemistry of these communities as well, said experts.
After the Bihar and Bengal debacle, the Congress and its allies in the opposition bloc are left with fewer options when it comes to counting a vote bank that is solely theirs. West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, who has severed all ties with the Congress in the state, said she will remain a part of the alliance but will not share seats. No politician or political party has, however, made any comment on her decision as to how this formula will work.
A senior Trinamool leader said the party is now looking at a “post-poll alliance” and will fight against the BJP with all its strength in Bengal. This makes the electoral equation and fight in the state a bipolar one.
It is now going to be a straight fight between the TMC and BJP, while the Congress and CPM alliance is likely to be a fringe player. The results of past elections, including Lok Sabha, assembly, panchayat and municipal, show how the Congress support base has only depleted even in their strongholds like Murshidabad and Malda, while the CPM has been wiped out.
In Bihar, with the JD(U) joining the BJP, experts said the OBC and EBC (economically backward class) as well as the upper castes are likely to vote for the NDA. “The BJP has managed to strategise the rainbow coalition of voters, which includes non-Yadav, Kurmi and other OBC votes along with EBC and upper caste. In fact, they have managed to get the Madhya Pradesh chief minister Manoj Yadav to work in Bihar among the Yadav voters,” said Shastri.
“The surveys that Lokniti did post 2014 and 2019 elections also showed that Muslims too voted for the BJP in some states. In fact, in Karnataka, the voting percentage of Muslims was in double digits,” he added.
Naveen Upadhyaya, a senior political analyst based out of Patna, said, “Bihar has always seen a caste-equation based election. The state did not vote for governance or development. So, whatever Nitish Kumar does and no matter how many times he jumps ship, the caste equations remain the same. His party will have a hold on its OBC and EBC voters, while the LJP and HAM will have a hold on theirs. In addition, the BJP too has a good support base across the Hindi heartland including Bihar. The consecration of Ram Temple may add some momentum to that, while the RJD is solely dependent on Muslim and Yadav votes. One has to consider that the voting pattern of Lok Sabha and assembly elections are different. In 2019, the BJP won all the 17 seats it contested.”
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Shiv Sena MLA Nilesh Rane said Hindu community just has one country – India. Nepal is also a Hindu majority country, but number of community members is very less in Himalayan nation.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi (PTI Image)
Shiv Sena MLA Nilesh Rane on Tuesday claimed India will save Hindus in Bangladesh, where they are facing attacks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi can defeat the neighbouring nation in “48 hours”.
Speaking at a rally organised in Sindhudurg district of Maharashtra to protest against atrocities on minority Hindus in Bangladesh, Rane said India is being surrounded by all sides everyday.
He said the Hindu community just has one country – India. Nepal is also a Hindu majority country, but the number of community members is very less in the Himalayan nation.
“Muslims have many countries. If you (Muslims) do not like our country then leave,” the ruling coalition MLA maintained.
Hindu women are being kidnapped and stones are being pelted on Ganpati, Ram Navmi and Hanuman Jayanti rallies/processions in Maharashtra, alleged the MLA whose party is aligned with the BJP.
“We will save Hindus in Bangladesh. There is (PM) Narendra Modi for that. But it is our responsibility to save our country. Do not let your guard down. Modi ji will not take more than two days to defeat Bangladesh. We will defeat Bangladesh in 48 hours,” the Shiv Sena legislator told the gathering in his home district.
Nilesh Rane is son of former Maharashtra chief minister Narayan Rane and elder brother of BJP MLA Nitesh Rane, who has been accused of make provocative speeches.
Nilesh Rane, a former BJP member, joined the Shiv Sena led by deputy CM Eknath Shinde ahead of the last month’s assembly polls and won from Kudal in Sindhudurg district.
Meanwhile, in Thane district, the Sakal Hindu Samaj, on the occasion of World Human Rights Day, organized an event to highlight atrocities against Hindus in Bangladesh and express solidarity with them.
A delegation representing the organization met with Thane district collector Ashok Shingare and Police Commissioner Ashutosh Dhumbre, and submitted a memorandum outlining their concerns and demands.
The memorandum brought attention to the “inhumane treatment and violence faced by Hindus in Bangladesh,” and urged the Indian government to take “swift and decisive action” to address the crisis.
To amplify their message, the Sakal Hindu Samaj organized a “silent march” in Thane on Sunday, as part of the “Bangladesh Hindu Nyaya Yatra” (Bangladesh Hindu Justice March).
The campaign also extended to Vasai in Palghar district, where hundreds of citizens took part in the yatra. The march was led by BJP leader Mahendra Patil.
(This story has not been edited by News18 staff and is published from a syndicated news agency feed – PTI)
- Location :
Sindhudurg, India
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The decision to approach the Supreme Court against the Election Commission was announced by Prashant Jagtap, leader of the NCP-Sharad Pawar who lost the assembly elections from the Hadapsar seat in Pune
During the meeting, Kejriwal flagged concerns related to voter lists in Delhi where assembly elections are due early next year.
(File Photo)
The opposition INDIA bloc in Maharashtra is set to move the Supreme Court over alleged manipulation of EVMs in the recent assembly elections.
The decision to approach the Supreme Court against the Election Commission was announced by Prashant Jagtap, leader of the NCP-Sharad Pawar who lost the assembly elections from the Hadapsar seat in Pune.
The decision was announced after a meeting between NCP-SP chief Sharad Pawar, AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal and noted lawyer and Congress leader Abhishek Singhvi here.
Pawar has been meeting leaders of his party who lost the assembly elections.
The INDIA bloc has claimed that it lost the elections in Maharashtra due to alleged manipulation of EVMs in favour of the BJP-led Mahayuti coalition.
In the elections held last month, the BJP-led Mahayuti coalition won 235 seats in the 288-member House while the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance bagged 46.
During the meeting, Kejriwal flagged concerns related to voter lists in Delhi where assembly elections are due early next year.
(This story has not been edited by News18 staff and is published from a syndicated news agency feed – PTI)
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Opposition’s motion of removal against Jagdeep Dhankhar: The notice, as per article 67(B) of the Constitution, will have to be put to vote first in the Rajya Sabha and, if needed, later in the Lok Sabha
Jagdeep Dhankhar has become the first Vice-President in the history of Independent India to face such a motion for removal. (PTI File)
A total of 60 MPs from opposition parties have submitted a notice to the Rajya Sabha Secretary General, demanding a motion for removal of Rajya Sabha chairman and Vice-President Jagdeep Dhankhar
The MPs from the Congress, Trinamool Congress (TMC), Samajwadi Party (SP), Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and other INDIA bloc allies have alleged that Dhankhar’s conduct is biased and therefore unbecoming of his position as the chairperson of the Rajya Sabha.
Article 67(b) of the Constitution of India states that the Vice-President can be removed from office by a resolution of the council of states. The resolution must be passed by a majority of the council of states and agreed to by the House of the People. Before a resolution can be moved, at least 14 days’ notice must be given of the intention to move the resolution.
For the first time in the 72-year history of the Rajya Sabha, Opposition Parties have formally submitted a no-confidence motion against the Chairman.There have been three occasions, however, when a no-confidence motion has been moved against the Speaker of the Lok Sabha. pic.twitter.com/DHjo5vqL2K
— Jairam Ramesh (@Jairam_Ramesh) December 10, 2024
WHAT NEXT?
The notice, as per article 67(B) of the Constitution, will have to be put to vote first in the Rajya Sabha and, if needed, later in the Lok Sabha.
Constitutional expert P D T Achari told News18 that the Rajya Sabha rule book makes no mention of any provision for removal of the chairperson. However, article 67 of the Constitution provides for the procedure for impeachment of the Vice-President of India. “The motion moved by the opposition will have to be put to vote in the Rajya Sabha. If a majority votes in favour, then it will be sent to the Lok Sabha. The Vice-President can be removed only if a majority of members in both the houses vote to impeach him,” Achary said.
#WATCH | On Opposition’s no-confidence motion against Rajya Sabha Chairman Jagdeep Dhankhar, Congress MP Jairam Ramesh says, ” In the last 72 years, it is the first time that Opposition parties have submitted a motion over Rajya Sabha Chairman. This shows how the situation has… pic.twitter.com/ySiO4r8D7u— ANI (@ANI) December 10, 2024
GOVERNMENT’S STAND
Parliamentary affairs minister Kiren Rijiju condemned the move by the INDIA bloc, but said the government did not have a problem in accepting the notice and getting it voted upon. Rijiju, however, pointed out that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) enjoys a majority in Parliament and all NDA MPs have full faith in the chairperson. “This notice is a diversionary tactic because the Congress is scared and disturbed over the Soros revelation. Dhankhar is a Jat, son of a farmer. We condemn this move to target him,” Rijiju said.
14 DAYS REQUIREMENT
As per article 67, a 14-day notice must be given before any resolution to remove the Vice-President is voted upon. Achari clarified that although this is an unprecedented situation, a bare reading of the Constitution suggests that the resolution moved by the opposition can be taken up in the next session of Parliament as less than 10 working days remain in the winter session. “A special session of the two houses can be called or the notice can be voted upon in the next session,” he told News18.
UNPRECEDENTED MOVE
Dhankhar has become the first Vice-President in the history of Independent India to face such a motion for removal. The numbers in both the Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha favour the ruling side, but the opposition insists on “putting on record the bias of the Chair”.
“As Chairperson, the manner in which Shri Jagdeep Dhankhar conducts parliamentary affairs of the Rajya Sabha is extremely partisan. It is a matter of record that Shri Jagdeep Dhankhar has repeatedly interrupted members of the Opposition while they are speaking, unfairly used privilege motions to silence leaders of the opposition, and openly delegitimized dissent with respect to the actions of the Government in the utmost disparaging manner,” the notice alleges.
It adds that his open praise for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and calling himself an “Ekalavya of the RSS” is proof of his bias. Rijiju dismissed the charge and said there was nothing wrong with praising an organisation like the RSS.
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