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10 investors talk about the future of AI and what lies beyond the ChatGPT hype

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1 year ago

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When I mentioned “the rise of AI” in a recent email to investors, one of them sent me an interesting reply: “The ‘rise of AI’ is a bit of a misnomer.”

What that investor, Rudina Seseri, a managing partner at Glasswing Ventures, means to say is that sophisticated technologies like AI and deep learning have been around for a long time now, and all this hype around AI is ignoring the simple fact that they have been in development for decades. “We saw the earliest enterprise adoption in 2010,” she pointed out.

Still, we can’t deny that AI is enjoying unprecedented levels of attention, and companies across sectors around the world are busy pondering the impact it could have on their industry and beyond.

Dr. Andre Retterath, a partner at Earlybird Venture Capital, feels several factors are working in tandem to generate this momentum. “We are witnessing the perfect AI storm, where three major ingredients that evolved throughout the past 70 years have finally come together: Advanced algorithms, large-scale datasets, and access to powerful compute,” he said.

Still, we couldn’t help but be skeptical at the number of teams that pitched a version of “ChatGPT for X” at Y Combinator’s winter Demo Day earlier this year. How likely is it that they will still be around in a few years?

Karin Klein, a founding partner at Bloomberg Beta, thinks it’s better to run the race and risk failing than sit it out, since this is not a trend companies can afford to ignore. “While we’ve seen a bunch of “copilots for [insert industry]” that may not be here in a few years, the bigger risk is to ignore the opportunity. If your company isn’t experimenting with using AI, now is the time or your business will fall behind.”

And what’s true for the average company is even more true for startups: Failing to give at least some thought to AI would be a mistake. But a startup also needs to be ahead of the game more than the average company does, and in some areas of AI, “now” may already be “too late.”

To better understand where startups still stand a chance, and where oligopoly dynamics and first-mover advantages are shaping up, we polled a select group of investors about the future of AI, which areas they see the most potential in, how multilingual LLMs and audio generation could develop, and the value of proprietary data.

This is the first of a three-part survey that aims to dive deep into AI and how the industry is shaping up. In the next two parts to be published soon, you will hear from other investors on the various parts of the AI puzzle, where startups have the highest chance of winning, and where open-source might overtake closed source.

We spoke with:

Manish Singhal, founding partner, pi Ventures

Will today’s leading genAI models and the companies behind them retain their leadership in the coming years?

This is a dynamically changing landscape when it comes to applications of LLMs. Many companies will form in the application domain, and only a few will succeed in scaling. In terms of foundation models, we do expect OpenAI to get competition from other players in the future. However, they have a strong head start and it will not be easy to dislodge them.

Which AI-related companies do you feel aren’t innovative enough to still be around in 5 years?

I think in the applied AI space, there should be significant consolidation. AI is becoming more and more horizontal, so it will be challenging for applied AI companies, which are built on off-the-shelf models, to retain their moats.

However, there is quite a bit of fundamental innovation happening on the applied front as well as on the infrastructure side (tools and platforms). They are likely to do better than the others.

Is open source the most obvious go-to-market route for AI startups?

It depends on what you are solving for. For the infrastructure layer companies, it is a valid path, but it may not be that effective across the board. One has to consider whether open source is a good route or not based on the problem they are solving.

Do you wish there were more LLMs trained in other languages than English? Besides linguistic differentiation, what other types of differentiation do you expect to see?

We are seeing LLMs in other languages as well, but of course, English is the most widely used. Based on the local use cases, LLMs in different languages definitely make sense.

Besides linguistic differentiation, we expect to see LLM variants that are specialized in certain domains (e.g., medicine, law and finance) to provide more accurate and relevant information within those areas. There is already some work happening in this area, such as BioGPT and Bloomberg GPT.

LLMs suffer from hallucination and relevance when you want to use them in real production grade applications. I think there will be considerable work done on that front to make them more usable out of the box.

What are the chances of the current LLM method of building neural networks being disrupted in the upcoming quarters or months?

It can surely happen, although it may take longer than a few months. Once quantum computing goes mainstream, the AI landscape will change significantly again.

Given the hype around ChatGPT, are other media types like generative audio and image generation comparatively underrated?

Multi-modal generative AI is picking pace. For most of the serious applications, one will need those to build, especially for images and text. Audio is a special case: there is significant work happening in auto-generation of music and speech cloning, which has wide commercial potential.

Besides these, auto-generation of code is becoming more and more popular, and generating videos is an interesting dimension — we will soon see movies completely generated by AI!

Are startups with proprietary data more valuable in your eyes these days than they were before the rise of AI?

Contrary to what the world may think, proprietary data gives a good head start, but eventually, it is very difficult to keep your data proprietary.

Hence, the tech moat comes from a combination of intelligently designed algorithms that are productized and fine tuned for an application along with the data.

When could AGI become a reality, if ever?

We are getting close to human levels with certain applications, but we are still far from a true AGI. I also believe that it is an asymptotic curve after a while, so it may take a very long time to get there across the board.

For true AGI, several technologies, like neurosciences and behavioral science, may also have to converge.

Is it important to you that the companies you invest in get involved in lobbying and/or discussion groups around the future of AI?

Not really. Our companies are more targeted towards solving specific problems, and for most applications, lobbying does not help. It’s useful to participate in discussion groups, as one can keep a tab on how things are developing.

Rudina Seseri, founder and managing partner, Glasswing Ventures

Will today’s leading genAI models and the companies behind them retain their leadership in the coming years?

The foundation layer model providers such as Alphabet, Microsoft/Open AI and Meta will likely maintain their market leadership and function as an oligopoly over the long term. However, there are opportunities for competition in models that provide significant differentiation, like Cohere and other well-funded players at the foundational level, placing a strong emphasis on trust and privacy.

We have not invested and likely will not invest in the foundation layer of generative AI. This layer will probably end in one of two states: In one scenario, the foundation layer will have oligopoly dynamics akin to what we saw with the cloud market, where a select few players will capture most of the value.

The other possibility is that foundation models are largely supplied by the open source ecosystem. We see the application layer holding the biggest opportunity for founders and venture investors. Companies that deliver tangible, measurable value to their customers can displace large incumbents in existing categories and dominate new ones.

Our investment strategy is explicitly focused on companies offering value-added technology that augments foundation models.

Just as value creation in the cloud did not end with the cloud computing infrastructure providers, significant value creation has yet to arrive across the genAI stack. The genAI race is far from over.

Which AI-related companies do you feel aren’t innovative enough to still be around in 5 years?

A few market segments in AI might not be sustainable as long-term businesses. One such example is the “GPT wrapper” category — solutions or products built around OpenAI’s GPT technology. These solutions lack differentiation and can be easily disrupted by features launched by existing dominant players in their market. As such, they will struggle to maintain a competitive edge in the long run.

Similarly, companies that do not provide significant business value or do not solve a problem in a high-value, expensive space will not be sustainable businesses. Consider this: A solution streamlining a straightforward task for an intern will not scale into a significant business, unlike a platform that resolves complex challenges for a chief architect, offering distinct and high-value benefits.

Finally, companies with products that do not seamlessly integrate within current enterprise workflows and architectures, or require extensive upfront investments, will face challenges in implementation and adoption. This will be a significant obstacle for successfully generating meaningful ROI, as the bar is far higher when behavior changes and costly architecture changes are required.



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NASA video shows spacecraft’s wild ride around ocean world

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2 hours ago

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October 13, 2024

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NASA’s Europa Clipper spacecraft is in for a wild ride.

The launch of this mission to explore the ocean world Europa — a Jupiter moon that harbors an ocean perhaps twice the volume of all Earth’s seas — was interrupted by the imposing Hurricane Milton, but its 1.8-billion-mile journey is imminent. The craft will make nearly 50 close flybys of Europa’s cracked, icy shell, using a number of high-resolution cameras, a ground-penetrating radar, and even a device that will literally sample particles of Europa that have been ejected into space by tiny meteorites.

The mission will gather copious amounts of information, enough to discern whether or not Europa harbors conditions that could host life beneath its ice shell.

“It’s perhaps one of the best places beyond Earth to look for life in our solar system,” Cynthia Phillips, a NASA planetary geologist and project staff scientist for the space agency’s Europa Clipper mission, told Mashable.

The repeated reconnaissance will require the craft to make perfectly timed loops around Jupiter as it intersects Europa’s orbit, which NASA shows in the animation below.

SEE ALSO:

Aliens haven’t contacted us. Scientists found a compelling reason why.

Here’s what you’re watching (a short ad plays first):

– Center orange dot: Jupiter

Mashable Light Speed

– Blue dot: Europa

– Gray, red, and yellow dots: Respectively Jupiter’s other three large moons — Io, Ganymede, and Callisto

– Magenta: That’s Europa Clipper “lopping in and out,” NASA explained.

There’s also a timestamp on the top right showing the mission’s planned flight between April and July 2032.

"The relative intensity of Jupiter's radiation bands is illustrated in this diagram," NASA explains, with darker reds depicting more radiation. Both Europa and Europa Clipper's orbits are depicted in the graphic.

“The relative intensity of Jupiter’s radiation bands is illustrated in this diagram,” NASA explains, with darker reds depicting more radiation. Both Europa and Europa Clipper’s orbits are depicted in the graphic.
Credit: NASA

This looping trajectory is also designed to limit the spacecraft’s exposure to extreme radiation. “The charged particle environment at Europa’s location is immense,” Phillips said.

That’s because Jupiter, a gas giant planet 317 times more massive than Earth, generates a massive magnetic field shooting out between 600,000 to 2 million miles (1 to 3 million kilometers) toward the sun. It’s created by the planet’s liquid metal core, which spins and creates electrical currents (moving electric charges make magnetic fields). Crucially, this magnetic field grabs and then accelerates particles from the relentless solar wind — a stream of rapidly traveling charged particles emitted by the sun — which creates potent radiation belts around Jupiter, as depicted above.


“You get out of there.”

(Decades ago, during the Voyager mission, NASA’s engineers were worried about the craft passing by Jupiter. A person hypothetically riding aboard Voyager as it passed Jupiter would have gotten hit with a radiation dose 1,000 times the lethal level.)

Not all of Europa Clipper’s electronics and software can be housed in a metal vault, so looping by the moon for relatively brief periods will limit impacts from charged particles, which can damage computer chips and electronics. During each orbit around Jupiter, the craft will spend under a day in an irradiated zone before swooping out. It won’t return for between two to three weeks.

“You get out of there,” Phillips said.

After journeying through the solar system, the craft is expected to reach Jupiter in 2030, and soon after begin its orbital dance through the Jovian system. If it appears habitable, NASA plans to return to Europa and land a robot on the icy crust. Such an endeavor would drill into the ice, looking to see if the moon is inhabited.





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NASA thinks it found a moon light-years away spewing gas

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7 hours ago

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October 13, 2024

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Scientists have never actually seen a moon orbiting a planet other than the ones in this solar system. An exomoon, a companion to an exoplanet, likely would be too tiny and far away for telescopes to resolve. 

But a new NASA study may have found a clue that one is orbiting a planet some 635 light-years from Earth. The inference comes from a vast sodium cloud spotted in space. Whatever is causing it produces about 220,000 pounds of sodium per second. 

The research suggests a rocky moon circling exoplanet WASP-49 b, a Saturn-sized gas giant discovered in 2017, is the source. That could mean the distant world is accompanied by a moon like Jupiter’s Io — a highly volcanic place, blasting out its own massive cloud of gasses 1,000 times wider than Jupiter.

“The evidence is very compelling that something other than the planet and star are producing this cloud,” said Rosaly Lopes, a planetary geologist who co-authored the study, in a statement. “Detecting an exomoon would be quite extraordinary, and because of Io, we know that a volcanic exomoon is possible.”

SEE ALSO:

Webb telescope finds first clear evidence of a ‘steam world’
Exomoon creating a sodium cloud

An exomoon could be the source of a bewildering sodium cloud found around an exoplanet.
Credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech illustration

This is not the first time astronomers have suspected an exomoon was lurking in their data. There have been exomoon candidates discovered in the past, though confirming their existence is much more difficult. Scientists such as Apurva Oza, once a postdoctoral researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, are interested in finding unconventional ways to detect them for what they could represent: Moons throughout the galaxy could also potentially offer habitable conditions for life, even if their host planets don’t. 

That’s why Oza wanted to return to studying WASP-49 b to further investigate the source of its bewildering cloud. Researchers used a ground-based telescope to observe the silhouettes of the cloud and the exoplanet as they passed in front of the host star. 

Mashable Light Speed

At one point, they noticed that the cloud was moving faster than WASP-49 b and away from Earth. If the cloud were coming from the exoplanet, they figured they would have seen it moving toward Earth. The observation led them to conclude that the cloud was coming from a separate source, according to the paper recently published in Astrophysical Journal Letters.

Moon orbiting an exoplanet

Exoplanet WASP-49 b could have an exomoon similar to Jupiter’s Io, a highly volcanic world pumping gasses into space.
Credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech illustration

“We think this is a really critical piece of evidence,” said Oza, a staff scientist at Caltech and the lead author, in a statement. “The cloud is moving in the opposite direction that physics tells us it should be going if it were part of the planet’s atmosphere.”

The team’s research provided other clues that an exomoon was making the cloud. Both the planet and the star are mostly made of the lightest elements, hydrogen and helium, with hardly any sodium. Seemingly neither has enough to be responsible for the cloud. Scientists also used the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope in Chile to see that the cloud hovers high above the exoplanet’s atmosphere — just like the cloud Io envelops around Jupiter. 

Next the team developed computer models to see if an exomoon could be the cloud’s catalyst. Their simulations found that a moon with a snug eight-hour orbit around the planet could explain the cloud’s motion — the way it seemed to sometimes drift in front of the planet and how it didn’t appear to be tied to any particular region of the alien world. 

Jupiter's moon Io

Jupiter’s moon Io, seen in multiple views above, is the most volcanically active world in our solar system.
Credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech / SwRI / MSSS

Scientists can’t say anything definitive about the exomoon because it’s just a candidate. But here’s what astronomers know about Io, the third-largest Jovian moon out of 95. Io is the most volcanic world in the solar system. Astronomers believe hundreds of volcanoes spew fountains that reach dozens of miles high.

Jupiter’s gravity squeezes Io‘s core as the moon moves closer, then slackens as it moves farther away. This swelling and contracting causes Io’s interior to heat up, triggering tidal volcanism. 

Scientists will need to continue observing this cloud to confirm its behavior, so the team is likely a long way from knowing with certainty if they have proof of an exomoon. Still, the results are thrilling for Oza, who believes looking for gas clouds — perhaps an order of magnitude larger than their source — could be an indirect method of finding habitable moons in other star systems.





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World’s First Private Space Station Is Like A Luxurious Hotel With Earth Views; Watch

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12 hours ago

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October 13, 2024

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California-based aerospace company Vast has revealed the remarkable interior design of Haven-1, which is set to become the world’s first commercial space station. In a newly released video, the company showcased a habitat that looks more like a luxury hotel than a typical orbital laboratory. The design, both sleek and inviting, promises a new level of comfort for future space travelers.

Haven-1 features modern wood veneer accents, padded white walls, and amenities similar to those found in top-tier hotels. The station also offers visitors a fully equipped gym to help them stay active, even in zero gravity. Additionally, private rooms are outfitted with the latest entertainment and communication technologies, ensuring that astronauts can easily stay in touch with family and friends on Earth.

“Set to launch on SpaceX’s Falcon rocket in 2025, Haven-1’s first paying customers will board in 2026,” Vast said in a press release.

ALSO SEE: What Will Earth Look Like From Private Space Station? Axiom Space’s Astronaut Reveals

Accommodating up to four astronauts, Haven-1 provides a level of comfort far surpassing that of the International Space Station (ISS). Each astronaut will have a cosy private room, complete with storage, a vanity, and a specially engineered queen-sized bed to enhance sleep quality in space.

Veteran NASA astronaut Andrew Feustel, who has accumulated over 225 days in space, played a key advisory role in shaping the design and layout of Haven-1. His extensive experience contributed to ensuring that the space station would not only be functional but also comfortable for its inhabitants.

“From communication and connectivity, to private space and interacting with others aboard, to advancing human progress on Earth and beyond, every detail has been designed with the astronaut experience at the core of our work,” he said.

ALSO SEE: Astronaut Floats In Space As Tiangong Space Station Cruises Above Blue Earth; Watch

(Image: Vast)





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